Carbon emission targets for driving sustainable mobility with US light-duty vehicles

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Transportation Engineering
• Climate Policy

Background:

• Current sustainable mobility models lack quantitative targets.
• Light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are significant contributors to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
• Stabilizing CO2 concentrations requires defined emission reduction pathways.

Purpose of the Study:

• To establish quantitative sustainable mobility targets for US LDVs.
• To align LDV emissions with global CO2 stabilization goals (450 or 550 ppm).
• To assess strategies for achieving these targets.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon stabilization pathways.
• Allocated US emissions to the LDV sector based on national contribution.
• Modeled emission reduction scenarios using EIA parameters.

Main Results:

• Average LDV well-to-wheel emissions must decrease from 160 g/mile (2002) to 20 g/mile by 2050 for a 450 ppm CO2 goal.
• Required strategies include a 136 mpg average fuel economy, over 83% cellulosic ethanol market share, or a 53% reduction in annual travel demand.
• Plug-in hybrid technology and federal policies offer short-term gasoline reduction but are insufficient alone.

Conclusions:

• Aggressive, combined strategies are essential for meeting 2050 LDV CO2 targets.
• Significant advancements in fuel economy, alternative fuels, and potentially reduced travel demand are critical.
• Policy interventions and technological advancements must be integrated for effective emission control.