CRNA (certified registered nurse anesthetist) manpower forecasts: 1990-2010

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Management
• Anesthesiology Workforce Analysis

Background:

• The anesthesia provider landscape in the US is shifting, with the ratio of certified registered nurse anesthetists (CRNAs) to anesthesiologists nearing parity.
• Historically, CRNAs outnumbered anesthesiologists significantly, a trend that has reversed over time.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a CRNA manpower forecasting model to project supply and requirements from 1990 to 2010.
• To estimate the potential CRNA shortage under different future scenarios.
• To analyze the economic impact of reversing current CRNA manpower trends.

Main Methods:

• Development of a CRNA manpower forecasting model.
• Analysis of two CRNA shortage scenarios: one based on current trends and another assuming CRNA supervision in all anesthetics.
• Estimation of societal cost savings associated with reversing manpower trends.

Main Results:

• A more than twofold increase in CRNA school enrollments is necessary to meet baseline needs, considering projected increases in surgical procedures.
• If anesthesiologists exclusively supervise, CRNA numbers would need to double by 2010, necessitating significant CRNA school expansion.
• Reversing current CRNA manpower trends could yield annual societal savings of $750 million to $1.2 billion.

Conclusions:

• Significant expansion of CRNA education programs is critical to address projected anesthesia provider needs.
• Shifting towards greater CRNA involvement in anesthesia delivery, under supervision, presents substantial economic benefits.
• The future anesthesia service delivery model requires strategic planning to ensure adequate supply and cost-effectiveness.