Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Virology
• Atmospheric Science

Background:

• Major pandemics caused by respiratory viruses emerge periodically, but their origins remain unclear.
• Existing data on influenza, COVID-19, permafrost microbiology, and atmospheric transport are considered.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore natural processes that could explain the emergence of novel viruses causing pandemics.
• To propose a model for virus origination and spread based on environmental factors.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical pandemic data, including influenza and early COVID-19.
• Integration of data on permafrost microbiome, stratospheric virus transport, solar irradiance, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming.
• Modeling atmospheric conveyance, hemispheric distribution, and links between COVID-19 cases and air pollution.

Main Results:

• A proposed sequence suggests viruses emerge from melting permafrost after hot Arctic summers, especially near solar maxima or wildfires.
• Pandemics may initiate in winter/spring where polar jet streams interact with warmer air, depositing viruses.
• Increased cases in spring/summer are linked to high solar irradiance, suggesting ultraviolet immune suppression as an amplification factor.
• Global spread and waves are explained by virus multiplication in humans and incorporation into atmospheric circulation, influenced by pollution and wind.

Conclusions:

• The model provides a testable framework for understanding pandemic origins and spread.
• Findings suggest potential mitigating actions related to permafrost research and atmospheric monitoring.