Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Remote Sensing Applications

Background:

• Central Asia is a hotspot for global desertification.
• The impact of global greening policies on desertification under climate change remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate desertification trends in Central Asia using remote sensing and climate data.
• To analyze the influence of temperature, precipitation, and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) on desertification.
• To improve desertification inversion methods and propose an evolution model.

Main Methods:

• Utilized multi-source remote sensing data and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2b climate data.
• Employed actual evapotranspiration (ETa), temperature, and precipitation as driving factors.
• Coupled the CA-Markov model with an improved desertification inversion method.

Main Results:

• Observed increases in temperature, precipitation, and NDVI from 1980-2015, with a shift in 1994.
• ETa showed fluctuating increases, but no distinct shift.
• Future climate projections indicate a warmer and wetter Central Asia.
• Desert land area decreased, but potential desert land area increased, a trend expected to intensify under global warming, especially in Xinjiang and Kazakhstan.
• The Aral Sea's water area is comparable to the projected increase in potential desert land under 2.0°C warming.

Conclusions:

• Desertification in Central Asia is evolving, with a decrease in current desertification but an increase in potential desertification risk.
• Global warming is projected to intensify desertification, posing significant challenges for regions like Xinjiang and Kazakhstan.
• Findings offer crucial policy support for desertification control and achieving Sustainable Development Goals in Central Asia.